Distrust

"No one trusts anyone in Afghanistan," said Faheem Dasty, the young Afghan journalist who survived the suicide bombing that killed his leader and mentor Ahmed Shah Massoud in September 2001. It is an oft-repeated sentiment. There is growing evidence that Dasty's claim is true and that this lack of trust should be a vital concern to the United States. Ultimately, it may prove to be more dangerous than the Taliban or al Qaeda where the security of Afghanistan is concerned because it could result in another civil war.

 

When the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, it relied heavily on Massoud's Northern Alliance to wage a proxy war. The Alliance, aka the United Front, had been held together largely by the strength and influence of Massoud. They were a collection of warlords with a common goal: to rid Afghanistan of the Taliban and al Qaeda. Individually, each had his own agenda. Without Massoud as the linchpin, they were willing to work with the Americans even though not all of them shared his vision for a free and democratic Afghanistan. Nonetheless, at the behest of the US, this loose confederation of warriors banded together and fought their common enemy once again.

 

After the Taliban slipped into the shadows to regroup and bide its time, the United States turned again to these same warlords, this time to maintain security. Armed to the teeth and financed by the US, each warlord agreed to provide security for his own fiefdom. The idea of a strong central government in Kabulseemed to be a distant plan. The Loya Jirga commenced, Hamid Karzai was put in power, and little changed in the lands these warlords held. The one thing upon which they all still agreed was that the Taliban and al Qaeda should never attain power again. While keeping a wary eye on his supposed allies, each warlord increasingly focused his attention and power on his own slice of the country without concern about the country as a whole.

 

Realizing the potential threat the armed warlords offered, the UN started a disarmament effort that largely failed. Entrenched in their respective parts of the country with the drug and weapons trade growing, there was little motivation to disarm. There was also wide-spread disbelief that the central government and the Afghan National Army would be able to provide protection. With historic mistrust, the long-held prejudices and suspicions Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek and Hazar had for one another continued.

 

Recently, President Karzai reached out to “moderate” members of the Taliban in an effort at reconciliation. His actions raised alarms among the northern warlords. "It does strengthen the belief amongst the former Northern [Alliance] groups that they may have to be prepared to stand up to some kind of Pashtun-dominated government," said Christopher Langton, an expert from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Some have suggested that the Northern warlords are merely using this as an excuse to arm themselves even more heavily, but in a country where trust is a commodity few can afford, their concerns might be understandable.

 

The Afghans worked with the US to expel the Soviets but found themselves in a civil war after factions of warlords fought for control of the new government. Tens of thousands of lives were lost, and the failed state became a breeding ground for terrorists. The same pattern pieces are falling into place again. The Afghans worked with the US to expel the Taliban and al Qaeda but once again find themselves teetering on a power struggle within the government. Extending his hand to moderate Taliban may be Karzai's effort to circumvent exactly that situation, but decades of war and betrayal make it difficult for everyone to trust his motives. Will the Northern warlords once again band together to fight the government in Kabul? They found a common ground when they fought the Soviets and the Taliban. Will they find one again in the Karzai government? These are the questions that must be answered before chaos returns and brings with it the potential for a failed state again. 

 

The irony of the situation cannot be overlooked. The US first asked the warlords to fight with them against the Taliban and al Qaeda, and then it armed them and asked them to protect their parts of the country. Now, those warlords are standing as a potential threat against the very same government the US put in power and supports.  “We are for you, and then we are against you,” they are told. It is a sentiment well known in Afghanistan. With growing distrust among Afghan warlords and government leaders, and with even more suspicion of the United States’ true motives, there can be no resolve."No one trusts anyone inAfghanistan."